On Forecasts

It is not the forecasting techniques that are dealt with in the paper. Those have already been thoroughly researched and are manifold. Whereas the quality of the forecast depends on the explanatory variables. Their identification is decisive of constructing forecasts of the high est probability of materialization. The considerations also focus on the role and limitations of mathematical models in forecasting. In addition, the importance of forecasting on the basis of the trend defined by the floating mean method is stressed.