The incertainty of incomes of the state budget in 2001

An expert opinion for the Senate of the Republic of Poland was prepared prior to the adoption of the state budget for 2001. In it, I drew attention to the over-optimistic planning of budget revenues therein. The over-optimism was primarily due to an overestimated forecast of GDP growth. Subsequently, it also concerned the increase in revenues from excise duty as a result of the increase in tax rates and from personal and corporate income tax as a result of the assumptions made. The development of inflation below the level assumed in the construction of the budget also has a significant impact on the reduction of budget revenues. This trend was difficult to foresee at the time. The currently observed gap in budget revenues was to a large extent foreseeable. I have drawn attention to the danger of its emergence, among other things, in this expert report.