Business cycle variability of employment in sectors of the Polish economy

Economic prosperity is a phenomenon that affects all aspects of market functioning, including the situation in the labour market. Changing demand for products and services, associated with successive upturns and downturns, can influence changes in employment levels, resulting in cyclical fluctuations in employment. However, the rigidity of the labour market means that the impact of the economic climate on employment of workers may be limited. Hence, the objective set in the paper presented here is to identify cyclical fluctuations in employment in the business sector, both in general and in individual sections of the economy, and to assess the strength and direction of the impact of the business cycle on changes in employment. The business cycle is one of the elements, along with seasonal fluctuations, random fluctuations and development trends, affecting the dynamics of the overall economic situation [Kowalczyk, 1982, pp. 43.44, among others]. The concept of cycle means [Schumpeter, 1951, p. 5] that the fluctuations of economic indicators are characterised by alternating periods of growth and decline, not za. uniform growth or decline. In the modern economy, which is characterised by stable growth, cyclicality manifests itself in medium-term deviations from the development trend [e.g. Long Jr., Plosser, 1983, pp. 39.40], during which the current situation of the economy is better or worse than the long-term trend. Business cycle fluctuations are short and, above all, medium-term in nature [Barczyk, 1989, p. 112]. Macroeconomic variables, showing different aspects of the functioning of the economy, are characterised by interrelated fluctuations [Diebold, Rudebusch, 2001, p. 6], taking place in the same or opposite direction and occurring with a certain time sequence.